Basic ideas...a university Boffin presents the formula for international relations ( much like occasionally we hear of formulas for which side a buttered slice of toast will land).
The degree of abhorrence of another nation's actions is proportional to their oil and mineral supplies divided by the numerical and equipment status of their armed forces.
Therefore, a nation with huge gas fields and three pensioners with bows and arrows had better not fart in the wrong direction, whereas somewhere with either empty wastelands or a fuck-off psychopathic dictator riding a flock of intercontinental warheads can do as they please.
All calculations operate in isolation from any sort of conventional right/wrong orthodoxy, naturally.
Worth pursuing? Anyone fancy inputting?