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This is exactly why some people are sceptical about global warming news


(101 posts) (29 voices)
  • Started 5 months ago by waylandsmithy
  • Latest reply from Squudge

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12…4Next »
  1. waylandsmithy

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    run to the very, very small hills

    Was anyone else told at school that seas would rise by 3 to 6 feet, because of melting ice? I remember being told with a straight face that Paris, London and New York would all be submerged in 10 years' time.

    But they slightly over-egged it according to the report: the total rise, over the last 20 years, was...11 millimetres. For those that use imperial, that's approximately 'fuck all'.

    We're also told that over the whole of the 20th century, seas rose by 20 cm, so the rate of increase has slowed dramatically.

    I'm all for energy efficiency and clean power, but there is so much willful misreporting around global warming. Turns out you didn't need a Thames Barrier: a couple of tubes of mastik would have done.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  2. Perks

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    I have an image of 27 scientists on the beach measuring the sea, agreeing a figure, and high fiveing each other after finally proving beyond reasonable doubt that the sea level has risen and global warming is real. Just at the height of their joy, a man walking a dog walks past and asks, "what about when the tide is out"

    Posted 5 months ago #
  3. waylandsmithy

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    Yes. And then spending hours debating how conflicted they feel about using a fleet of thirsty Land Rovers to do the research, but it's OK because they're not on the school run.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  4. saltire

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    http://www.thecommentator.com/article/2042/secret_list_of_28_scientific_experts_concealed_by_bbc_revealed

    Posted 5 months ago #
  5. Oxbridge

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    No it's not fuck all. For 20 year, an infinitesimally small length of time in geological terms, that is incredibly quick. And the vast majority of the effects are yet to come.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  6. waylandsmithy

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    Oxy, it's not 6 feet though, is it?

    And it's slowed down considerably compared with the rest of the 20th Century. The problem with global warming isn't whether it's real or not: it's the baseless scaremongering and exaggeration that surrounds it.

    You say 'the vast majority of the effects are yet to come', but no-one really knows that for sure, do they? It's just more baseless supposition. Sure, there's a lot of ecologists making a fortune flying all over the planet measuring penguins or whatever, but it's entirely pointless, except for their ongoing research budgets.

    Why? Because the only 'solutions' are to use less energy, or kill a few billion people. It might be a bit selfish of me but I'm not buying a Prius or watching a smaller telly, which only leaves genocide.

    Is that what you want, Oxy? Millions killed, so your shoes stay dry?

    Posted 5 months ago #
  7. Dick Everyman

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    I remember my geography teacher telling us the same thing and very angrily saying that people from Norfolk would have to migrate to North Wales (he was Welsh).

    He also said that with the growth of the Chinese population they could take over Europe (including Wales) just by walking westwards enmasse and we wouldn't have the power to stop them.

    However, if it was then 6 foot under water they'd have to bring their flippers...

    Posted 5 months ago #
  8. Carter

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    I was told at school in the mid-nineties that before my generation got to thirty the rise in global sea levels would have resulted in the deaths of billions but also that that didn't matter as before the twentieth century ended there would be a huge war - China vs. Rest of the World - and everyone my age would be conscripted and shot.

    This is what happens when you are educated at a shitty comp staffed by apocalyptic loons who looking back were almost all quite staggeringly dim.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  9. Sinnick

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    Yes, the press have a lot to blame for misunderstanding, and inaccurate and incomplete reporting. Not a new observation, is it ?

    If 1000 scientists produce fine work, and 1 produces something dodgy, guess which one appears in the press & gives scientists a bad name ? And, the vast majority of scientists aren't doing headline work, they're just plodding along discovering a single piece of the jigsaw of Life+Universe+Everything.

    On this particular issue, the article is about the accelerating contribution to sea levels by polar ice melt. This is just 1/5th of the total sea level increase, most of the rest being caused simply by expansion. The impact of this is slow in human terms, but incredibly fast in nature's timescale. The knock-on effect on sea currents, sea temperature, salinity, ocean cycles, cloud cover, rainfall, extreme weather, etc, etc is near-impossible to predict. However, some predictions are possible - eg, most of Bangladesh will cease to exist in 40 years time (could be 30, or could be 50).

    The remaining climate scepticism is now understood - this issue (and global overpopulation) is so far beyond human experience that it's no surprise that many just cannot believe it despite the facts. I've mentioned previously a presentation by a Harvard psychologist on the subject - recommended watching.

    Personally, I think overpopulation is an even bigger catastrophe, underpinning just about every major problem on the planet. Sorry, no solution, until nature resolves it in some unpleasant way.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  10. medici2471

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    Never really understood why sea levels will rise if the ice caps melt - the volume of ice is greater than that of water (unusally water expands as it freezes), therefore shouldn't sea levels actually fall as the ice melts?...

    Posted 5 months ago #
  11. butagirl

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    I had rather a heated debate recently with an American friend who is evangelical about global warming because he made the statement "Global warming is as much a fact as gravity". I'm by no means a global warming denier, but being a lawyer he has a very tenuous grasp on what constitutes a fact.

    And don't get me started about misuse of the term "climate change"...

    Posted 5 months ago #
  12. Sinnick

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    Medici, "a floating object displaces its own weight of water". A kilo of ice has a volume of about 1.1 litres, so it floats. When it melts, it has a smaller volume of just 1 litre. The surrounding water doesn't get deeper or shallower. Try this at home with a glass and ice cubes.

    So, if the Earth's problem were that floating ice might melt, well, there wouldn't be a problem. The fact is that glaciers etc over land are melting, and these are very very big.

    But, the biggest cause of rising sea levels is simply that the ocean water is warming, and therefore expanding in size, making it deeper.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  13. waylandsmithy

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    Medici, that's the bit that confused me! We were told that if it all melts, the sea will rise. But if you put some ice cubes in a glass of water and mark the water level, it will remain unchanged once the ice has melted.

    I know that in theory, ice melting from a land mass can run into the sea and raise the levels. But in hindsight, 6 ft now seems as completely unbelievable as the 'Noah and the flood' story. Just think how much additional water it would take to increase the level of the Pacific ocean by 6 ft...

    I also remember being told that all the plants in my garden would be dead as a result of increasing temperatures. Even though most of them were popularised by the victorians who brought them back from places like Singapore and India.

    Our date palm copped it though: they turn to a weird black mush once the temperature hits -18°C.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  14. sigmund

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    When I was at school in the 70's, we were assured that a new ice age would be here by the end of the 20th century. (Even prompted Jethro Tull to write some songs about it). Pity it didn't arrive - we could do with the ice to put in all the cooling drinks we'll need if things get much hotter.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  15. bonjonelson

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    I must agree. General gut feelings about what must be right with the world beat decades of well-researched and peer-reviewed science any day.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  16. beau-jolly

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    Chuffing freezing up here in Shaftesbury today!
    I reckon that if the sea rises by 11mm then a wall one house brick high should protect most low lying cities for about 100 years. Have I missed something?

    When I was younger we were all absolutely bricking it about the inevitable nuclear holocaust.

    And another thing: Its not "humans causing global warming", its "human activities influencing the rate of climate change". To what extent they vainly beleive they can influence or have influenced the natural ebb and flow of change is what is being debated.

    and if you want to know why ice floats: Try this

    Posted 5 months ago #
  17. Perks

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    What ever happened to the ozone layer? Did we sort that out or is it due for a comeback

    Posted 5 months ago #
  18. Oxbridge

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    "Was anyone else told at school that seas would rise by 3 to 6 feet, because of melting ice? I remember being told with a straight face that Paris, London and New York would all be submerged in 10 years' time."

    OK, Wayland's teacher sounds a bit of a berk. However, the vast scientific consensus is that this is real, scary and incredibly urgent. Interesting stat: one scientist searched all peer-reviewed scientific papers mentioning the term 'global climate warming' over the past 20 years. There were nearly 14,000. The percentage that argued that there is no such thing? 0.17%. In real terms, that means it's not in serious dispute.

    I've also been hearing arguments along similar lines for years on just about any issue and not just environmental ones, i.e. some people who believe this are earnest and maybe a tad self-righteous and most scary predictions turn out to be wrong, ergo this one isn't true. This is pretty dodgy logic at the best of times.

    In my professional life, I see a lot of scary bollocks spouted by environmental NGOs and they have lots credibility among the rational majority of the population as a result. Generally you know it's bollocks when they put these things forward and the scientists are unworried about it. When, as in this case, it's the scientists who are telling us to worry, maybe we should start worrying.

    Sorry if anyone is offended by the total lack of knob gags, BTW.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  19. Vertically Challenged Giant

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    I think that got fixed Perks, they stuffed the hole with polystyrene or something and made it all better.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  20. waylandsmithy

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    Oxbridge, it was a standard assertion made in most schools at the time, I'm pretty sure it was on the syllabus. Others on here have said they were taught it as well. As it happens, the teacher that said it was an excellent teacher: as a school, our exam pass-rate was astonishing.

    It's just an example of where a cast-iron scientific assertion later turned out to be bollocks. The problem with climate change research is that it can be self-fulfilling: there's a shit-load of money being thrown at people who support the theory to go out and find more 'evidence', and anyone who questions it is rubbished and dismissed from the peer group.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  21. waylandsmithy

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    Been thinking about this:

    "Interesting stat: one scientist searched all peer-reviewed scientific papers mentioning the term 'global climate warming' over the past 20 years. There were nearly 14,000. The percentage that argued that there is no such thing? 0.17%. In real terms, that means it's not in serious dispute."

    It sounds like a cast-iron, scientific fact. Unfortunately, it's actually bullshit.

    14,000 research papers. That's an awful lot of scientists, and presumably an awful lot of money. But each one will be looking at a tiny area of research, so their conclusions will only relate to that tiny area. They're not drawing an overarching conclusion about all aspects of climate: if that could be done credibly, you wouldn't need 14,000 papers.

    What's more, NOT finding any evidence doesn't prove that climate change ISN'T real. Fortunately, it would appear only 0.17% were 'mental' enough to come to that conclusion.

    It's just another meaningless statistic, and also another example of fuzzy thinking: if they'd have thought about what they were actually doing before they started, they'd have realised it was a flawed project. But it had 'science' and 'climate change' in the budget proposal, so I guess it was really easy to get funding.

    No-one knows for sure what's really going on now, let alone what will happen in 10 years time. If they claim to with certainty, then they're not a very good scientist.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  22. Gerontius

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    The last football ground that will survive global warming will be The Hawthorns
    West Bromwich Albion....now will you start listening?
    West Brom v Burnley every week...is that really what you want?

    I've just checked...11mm is approximately 'fuck all'

    Posted 5 months ago #
  23. The All New Jeni B

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    Our two local football grounds are part-way up a hill, and about 4 miles in land, so it's unlikely that they'll flood.

    I'm convinced that we need to find clean and renewable energy sources and have the brass balls to do something about the global population explosion.
    I'm in no doubt either, that humans have played a part in climate change, but not the wholesale responsibility claimed in some quarters.

    Yes, I'm going to sound like the kind of mad hippy we're all so fond of poking with sticks here, but to believe that we are solely capable of doing anything about is crazy. This planet has existed for billions of years, the bulk of that before humans came along, and if we're all honest, we're not concerned with 'saving the planet' for the sake of the planet, but saving it for the sake of the most dangerous, irresponsible, damaging species ever to populate it.

    And some wonder where my misanthropy stems from...

    Posted 5 months ago #
  24. rikkor

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    Wayland, I'm old enough to remember behind told we'd all have TV-phones in our homes by 1975. Now we have Skype and still no one wants to use it.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  25. Gerontius

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    I've got Skype Rikkor
    Do you want to see my cock?

    Posted 5 months ago #
  26. Perks

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    Brass balls would solve the population crisis. But that would take millions of years of evolution. I don't think there's time

    Posted 5 months ago #
  27. ianslat

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    I remember when we all used to worry about acid rain. We were all happier then...

    Posted 5 months ago #
  28. dvo4fun

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    11mm you say? I think that's the 3/8" socket spanner I used the least when I was a motor mechanic. So, it may still be the original Britool in the tool box in the shed. That's about all I can contribute to this thread.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  29. bonjonelson

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    Fact. General public are more critical of 'global warming' stories in the winter.

    Posted 5 months ago #
  30. bonjonelson

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    "No-one knows for sure what's really going on now, let alone what will happen in 10 years time. If they claim to with certainty, then they're not a very good scientist. "

    I don't think any serious climate scientist would ever claim to be able to predict exactly what will happen in 10 years time (or 100). It's not like predicting future eclipses, which can be done with extreme precision because the variables involved are simple and easily understood. Climate science is a huge horrible mess of billions of variables and interactions.

    However, one thing is clear. As computing power increases and the complexity of computer modelling simulations improves, scientists using different data sets and different methods of analysis are all seeing the same pattern - significant climate change ahead due significantly to human carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions.

    I know a lot of people who work directly or indirectly in science research, including climate research. You have to be a certain mindset to be a research scientist. Love of money isn't really compatible with that lifestyle. While there are certainly some who have taken research projects in climate science because that's where funding was available, do you honestly think that 90%+ of them would have been tempted to fiddle their results (remember - if you're caught out on this it's pretty much the end of your career)? I know these people. I know they just don't do this.

    Still, it's cold outside today, so it must all be rubbish.

    Posted 5 months ago #

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