Is anyone else having a problem relating to the current hysteria over the new strain of Covid and its superspreading powers? When the lorry park at Manston was cleared Grant Shapps triumphantly announced that more than 15,000 tests had been carried out and that the infection rate was 0.23 per cent. Hardly a life threatening scenario bearing in mind that most of those tested spent their working lives driving around the UK and Europe and had spent the previous few days socialising at less than the recommended distance from each other. Is there something we aren't being told?
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Pandemic, epidemic or neither?
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International lorry drivers are in a rather unique situation. They have cabins (tractors) that are really a portable house, so they don't mingle except with others of their ilk. They can be equipped with bed, fridge, simple cooker & sometimes even a toilet
I'm not sure the long distance drivers even assist with loading/unloading - they just drive then rest. To drive 40 tonnes safely at 60mph, they must be reasonably sensible folk
So opportunities to mingle are rare, and then only with other uninfected folk. They, and those at their destinations, will be very aware of the risks of being superspreaders
The risky people are those who find ways to circumvent the rules rather than using their brains to avoid all contact
Posted 2 months ago # -
Agree with Sinnick, truckers aren’t representative. Mrs Voleo, tells me we shouldn’t discount research showing it is more transmissible, especially that research showing it’s more transmissible among children. She reserves judgment as epidemiology’s not her field, but thinks the science looks like good science and she’s a science writer so some experience telling good science from bad. There’s proper modelling based on this research indicating that we’re not containing it to an R0 of less than 1.
Posted 2 months ago # -
Excellent good sense from Sinnick.
But regarding the terminology of demics of various category (whatever the Hell a demic actually is): now that we've all got used to pandemic as an upgrade of epidemic, do we not need some new word to generate a fresh wave of desperation & panic?
How about superedemic? Or megademic? Or perhaps ultimatedemic? Or even armageddondemic? Look-out-kid-you-can't-escape-this-one-it's-going-to-get-you-for-sure-and-you're-going-to-die-demic?
Or is the question purely academic?
Posted 2 months ago # -
Surely the worst prospect is that the current virus, or strains thereof, becomes endemic.
We never wholly get rid of it and it becomes a resident pathogen in all societies.
The infection rates rise and fall, and rise again and fall again. It may become seasonal, (winter=worse, like flu; or summer=worse, because of more travelling?), or it may just become yet another excuse for a sicky.And I see that the WHO are already saying that Covid-19 may not be "the big one". Disease experts have forecast for years (much like vulcanologists and siesmologists talking about Yellowstone and the San Andreas) that a major global outbreak of something is a matter of when, not if. So unfortunately this is maybe the first of the franchise and the sequel(s) could be so much worse.
Posted 2 months ago # -
Walter, it seems obvious to me that this isn't the Big One, and I fully agree with the WHO - I think they're being cautious if anything
There is a plus side, though. The virology labs worldwide will have learnt so much about viruses & infections that next time they'll be even quicker off the mark. Hopefully, so will politicians - but I'm not holding my breath on that aspect
Posted 1 month ago # -
Surely the worst prospect is that the current virus, or strains thereof, becomes endemic.
That ship has sailed, I am afraid. Look for annual flu/covid jabs as standard practice for ever more.
Is anyone else having a problem relating to the current hysteria over the new strain of Covid and its superspreading powers?
No. If anything it is being underplayed. The biggest fear here is of swamped intensive care, and "vaccine escape" by the virus.
I think a tougher lockdown, including curfew and no return to school, plus rapid roll-out of the Oxford vaccine are required now.
Posted 1 month ago # -
Concur with all that. Immediate indefinite UK-wide lockdown, to let the hospitals keep on top of the cases. Wouldn't want to see Covid patients dying in corridors
Immediate: if they wait until after NYE it'll rapidly spread everywhere
Indefinite: let the hospitals cope, judge it to end when enough vaccinations have been issued to protect the NHS
UK-wide: else folk will just move around out of the worst zones, passing this new variant all over
Lockdown: to stop twats having parties
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But, in reality, I think there will be England lockdown for 1 month from Saturday to allow all the still-drunk partygoers time to drive home to spread the new strain everywhereThey'll likely let schools & Unis re-open with distancing
Posted 1 month ago # -
I think a tougher lockdown, including curfew and no return to school, plus rapid roll-out of the Oxford vaccine are required now.
Definitely. We're in a bigger pickle now than last Spring. THe prevalence is so high there becomes a risk that people will contract it from their vaccinators, so if we have that as a headline and the vulnerable are put off getting vaccinated, we never get out of this
Posted 1 month ago # -
And I see that the WHO are already saying that Covid-19 may not be "the big one". Disease experts have forecast for years (much like vulcanologists and siesmologists talking about Yellowstone and the San Andreas) that a major global outbreak of something is a matter of when, not if. So unfortunately this is maybe the first of the franchise and the sequel(s) could be so much worse.
Yup - research predicting precisely this - the source, the route of transmission and the likely outcome has been out there for at least 30 years.
I see that one of our number believes that researchers into COVID are on a "gravy train". What an unthinking twat.
Posted 1 week ago # -
I read something recently about smallpox. It was eradicated because it was easy to see if anyone had it. Also the vaccine immediately caused a pustule so you could tell if it was effective.
One problem with Covid is the high percentage of people who are asymptomatic or have effects so mild they don't notice. On that basis, mass testing must be the answer. Why not test people just before vaccinating them? That may save 30% of the vaccine too or am I being silly?
Let's hope the next big one shows obvious outward signs - suggestions please.
As an aside, bubonic plague still pops up now and again.Posted 1 week ago # -
One problem with Covid is the high percentage of people who are asymptomatic or have effects so mild they don't notice. On that basis, mass testing must be the answer. Why not test people just before vaccinating them? That may save 30% of the vaccine too or am I being silly?
Not totally daft, because, if you were identifying who already had antibodies that would be very useful data - however it would take too long (double the number of appointments) as a gateway process, and it is more than likely that being vaccinated after being infected previously is very beneficial, because this will boost antibodies and increase T-cells. This will lower severe disease - transmission, not so sure. It is a move to routine jabs (like the flu)
Posted 1 week ago # -
OK, how about getting the NHS to manage test and trace rather than your local pub landlord?
I was just thinking that I wouldn't bother to make an appointment to have a test with no symptoms but when I go for my jab (next week*) they could stick a cotton bud up my nose and have a result by the time I've finished my tea and biscuits - you do get tea and biscuits, don't you?I think you are right about an annual jab. People die of flu every year but no-one bats an eyelid, even when the excess deaths hit 50,000 the other year. We could live with that, but social distancing for ever is unthinkable. I like hugging people.
*Not yet 65 but take immune suppressants for rheumatic knuckles which makes me a "vulnerable" over 60.
Posted 1 week ago # -
Glad to see we're still part of the Horizon Europe framework, despite Brexit
A viral pandemic was a disaster waiting to happen, and the absence of effective Govt preparedness is disgraceful - in the UK, the Exercise Cygnus report has still not been officially released
There will be more pandemics: some will be contained & some will be worse. It's inevitable, but hopefully the lessons learned from Covid will help the prevention & response
There are other world threats too, of course
- asteroid impact, highlighted by the Chelyabinsk Event, is a very real possibility. Fortunately, there is a very active Programme to anticipate it (I made a small contribution!)
- nuclear engagement. Not very likely to happen, but maybe there will be progress in arms reduction now that the US has a less self-centred Govt
- Climate Change: obviously the biggie - plenty of excellent research, but I don't feel very much has changed. We're still breathing 55% more CO2 than we were 150 years ago. Politicians' promises, countries like China & Russia, sneaky offsetting tricks: it doesn't seem that those able to change things will do so
Posted 1 week ago #
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