I've been thinking about the tactics of what went on last week and what might be planned. This is a long shot but worth thinking about. This may end up a bit long.
Assumptions / Unknowns:
1) Does Boris really want a no deal or does he just want it as a negotiation ploy ?
2) Was Dominic Cummings hired to
a) Deliver no deal
b) Deliver Boris a long term legacy
c) Deliver a deal
3) Is Boris worried about his long term legacy as the priority ?
I suspect that Boris would like to make sure he has a Legacy. That would mean not losing an election too quickly.
If he called an election just after a no deal then there would be risks because it would be an election primarily based on the future, new trade deals, sorting out the effects of austerity etc. It would be played out under the issues caused by a no deal. The government would be having to deal with issues while campaigning. Labour could move the election to their home ground: NHS etcetc. Implementing Brexit itself would be less or not an issue so the split in Labour would be less pronounced
I think that would be a risk
If he waited for the current parliament to end then he is taking a risk of two years of potential issues with no deal. The chances are that the recovery won't have got strong enough by that stage to have had an effect on the electorate. He would be taking a chance that no deal brexit would go well fast enough to win an election.
Again, a bit of a risk
He could do a deal with the EU and then call an election. As a strategy that requires the EU to budge on the Backstop enough that Boris can put a deal to parliament that is different enough. He could potentially change a few words and bring back Theresa May's deal and force parliament to approve it with the only alternative being a no deal. The risks of course are that he would look silly because he would be supporting something he has criticised (not that u turns seem to bother him if he can get away with them), parliament might force him to ask for an extension or force hi to drop no deal and so he ends up where Theresa May was. He would also need the EU to give him some changes that he could sell.
Again a risky strategy.
That leaves one option which would be an election before the Brexit decision. To do that he would have to move the Brexit date from the end of October which would cause issues with the Brexit party. Again, not a good strategy.
Leaving that discussion aside for a paragraph or two and think about Dominic Cummings for a moment. He will have war gamed the various options and in general all the major steps taken would be for a reason. A game of chess trying to anticipate the opposition to give the best possible outcome.
At the start of last week, Boris was in a good place. The EU hadn't changed their stance but had repeated the stance in a way that allowed Boris to look like he had made progress. They could have said, "We've been asking you to provide alternatives to the backstop for 2 years and if you can then we can remove it". They worded it in a nice way for him.
As a result, he could be fairly certain that a confidence vote wouldn't have happened this week because the Tory rebels would be giving him an opportunity. Any opposition motion would have been very close because the softer rebels would be willing to give him a chance to negotiate.
But then, they announced the proroguing of Parliament. Why ? What did it gain them ?
Predictably, people are up in arms about it. The Tory rebels are now much more likely to vote against the government next week. The chances of Parliament voting through something potentially binding are much higher now than they were at the start of last week.
He could easily have allowed this week to go through and then the break for the conferences and then he could have genuinely reset parliament, blocked the 5 days and ended up with the same delay but without the 5 week issue. So why wouldn't they do that ?
Going back to Dominic Cummings and the fact that he would have gamed this, he would have expected this response which means that he would have WANTED this response. So why might he do that ?
This is one scenario that I have come up with:
Going back to Boris wanting to win an election, he could have one before Brexit but he would have to have a strong reason for it that wouldn't alienate the Brexit party and would keep the public on his side and make it more likely that he would win it.
So, what if the rebels manage to take control of the order paper on Wednesday and push through a reasonably binding change on Boris to stop no deal, perhaps to ask for an extension. Whatever they come up with it will bind his hands and he will be left with telling people he will just ignore parliament and do his own thing.
Unless...
... he says that Parliament has bound his hands so much with whatever they pass next week that he feels unable to properly represent the British people in the negotiations to get the best outcome and he can't go for no deal without going against Parliament. He doesn't want to go against Parliament but also wants to deliver the best deal for the British people. So he calls a general election to ask the British people to give him a mandate to keep no deal on the table and allow him to negotiate sensibly with the EU.
He is forced to ask for a delay from the EU while the election takes place but that was Parliament binding his hands and he can't go against parliament. He then asks the people to give him the parliament he wants.
The Brexit party may be miffed but the alternative at the end of next week may be Deal or no Brexit in which case Boris' position would be a better route for them. Would they really campaign against Boris saying we will leave, want a deal but we must have no deal and we must have a parliament that allows it.
I have a feeling that Boris could win an election on those terms, with a majority that means he is no longer dependent on either NI or the ERG. He is then free to set his own red lines and agree a different deal with the EU.
He is the saviour of Brexit, the saviour of the country from a damaging no deal, saved the country from the backstop by perhaps agreeing a customs union of a sort.
Food for thought anyway.
If the opposition don't get through a blocking amendment next week then he is free to keep negotiating but then he is relying on the EU giving him good words to get a deal which I think is riskier.
By proroguing parliament last week, he has made it far more likely that there will be a serious blocking amendment next week.
Going back to the original assumptions, he could just want no deal. In that case, proroguing parliament in October would be the most likely way to get that not proroguing it now.
